Tuesday, March 13, 2007

The Bull

'Inductive' reasoning is not 100pc reliable...

Everyday a chicken is brought some feed by the farmer. On the basis of this repeated experience the chicken reasons it is a rule of life - a kind of natural law - that the farmer will bring her feed every day. Then one day, the farmer comes along and wrings her neck.
- Philosopher Bertrand Russell

I feel the stock investors in Kenya (not my expertise to study people) are like the chicken. You are bound to hear stories of someone who took out a loan bought shares and sold them after a few days paying off his debt within a week. Not to deny that can happen but imagine others taking such a plunge - just because it happened to someone else!

One day the stock market will or will try to wring our necks!

With no long term perspective currently the market is filled with speculators - which is OK to want to make a quick kill - but just imagine the consequences. The roller coaster associated with the pure equity investment is not for everyone. So everyone is excited about the NSE - it is almost as if it never existed before.

I would love to invest in stocks in the near future - for now it is a wait and see.

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