Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Safaricom IPO and the madness around the NSE

Is it just me spoiling a potentially good party or have we forgotten the fundamentals?

The Safaricom IPO process is underway and it has attracted the attention of global business commentators. The FT today had a small article on the coming IPO just to show the interest it has aroused to profit seekers.

I understand the interest that it seems to elicit but personally regrettably albeit I am not participating in the exercise. It would have been interesting but feasibility simply deters me. I know someone would suggest that I can do it online (!) but I honestly have no reason to participate other than to make quick buck.

Other issues are also troubling sceptics like me:

Politics

During the concluded elections there was some call from certain quarters for the cancellation of the exercise – I cannot find the reasons that were put across – but now suddenly I cannot hear any discussions about the issue. I know politicians will always be politicians – now that they are ‘sharing’ power they seem to have forgotten about that. Can someone shed some light before I can even consider parting with a cent?

Weak Regulation:


Could it be we are naive or am I missing something? The CMA is still looking for a CEO (it seems for eons) and the vacuum is real. The same regulatory body seems toothless when it comes to reigning on the stockbrokers especially. Investors are at the moment queuing up outside Nyaga stockbrokers following it’s collapse, and others are still queuing up on the other side to part with their cash? Is it just me or is it mind boggling? Someone has pointed out that I am risk averse and there is no where you can get a risk free investment. I know but can we at least estimate the risk levels.
Did I mention without doubt the will be over subscription? I know I am the worst person to come to if you want some encouragement – pray for me. You part with your money say 10,000 in March and get it back if I’m not wrong in June/July. But where else can you keep the money? My sister invested over 20,000 last year in a balanced fund portfolio – she has earned a whooping 300 interest (not even enough to cover her initial charges). So I guess maybe one has nothing to lose.

I know we are excited potential especially when anyone reminds us how certain individuals made money during the KENGEN saga. So is this same as gambling?
As a by the way gambling is huge - two days ago someone told me to place the bet that Liverpool will win the league - I he must have seen moron written on my forehead!.

Anyway it is still a great opportunity for Kenya especially given the dark period we seem to have just come through. All the best.

Facts: Safaricom floatation
- Set to be the biggest listed company in EA
- 10bn shares are up for grabs.
- State to sell its 25% stake (of which 65% will go to local investors)
- Government has valued it at $3.1bn

Someone please tell me to stop moaning and get the money!

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